Dec. 25 could be white

Researchers at Cornell University's Northeast Climate Center have found the historical probability of snow on the ground for the holiday in this area is 69 percent.

But if there is at least one inch of snow on the ground Dec. 18, which on Wednesday was the case, the likelihood skyrockets to 73 percent, said Keith Eggleston, a senior climatologist at the center.

Frank Ward, Walton observer for the National Weather Service, said he examined his records and those of his predecessor, Arthur Bennett, to find the probability about the same. Altogether, he examined 117 years of statistics for Walton to find a 65 percent chance of having a white Christmas, no matter how much snow is on the ground Dec. 18.

Statistics are one thing, Ward said, and reality is another. With the probability of snow flurries by Monday and a snowstorm possible by the middle of next week, he said the likelihood of snow on the ground for Christmas is closer to 100 percent.

"We will probably have a white Christmas," he said. There are about 4 inches of snow on the ground in Walton.

The situation is a little different in Delhi, but the results are expected to be the same, said NWS observer John Bramley. On Wednesday, he said there were about 5 inches of snow on the ground. Rains expected in the area by the weekend might melt some of that, he said.

But with cold temperatures, such as the minus-6 degree reading in Delhi on Wednesday, he said there will still be a "good base" to keep the snow on the ground.

So — like Ward — he said, "We will probably have a white Christmas."

The National Climate Data Center, in a report titled "Probability of a White Christmas," is giving odds on the amount of snow expected on Christmas day.

The odds-on favorite at 67 percent are measurements of less than 5 inches of snow on the ground by Christmas. There is a 43 percent chance of more than 5 inches of snow and a 17 percent chance of more than 10 inches.