And the winner is ... probably 'Chicago

"`Chicago' might sweep," said John Carter, an avid movie-watcher and longtime follower of the Academy Awards. "`Chicago' is going to be the big movie."

"Chicago" - based on the musical about two jailed murderesses competing for notoriety in the Jazz Age - is expected to garner several of the golden statuettes known as Oscars at the 75th annual Academy Awards on Sunday night.

"This is the year of the musical," said Terry Mattison, owner of the Oneonta Theatre.

The four members of The Daily Star's Oscar panel described the movie as "exciting," "cynical but lively" and having "a lot of energy."

"It has everything," said Paul Jensen, professor of mass communication at the State University College at Oneonta. "It's entertaining; it has spectacle ... plus the success of this movie seems to be giving encouragement to the idea that one could make successful musicals again."

Ken Golden, associate professor of theater arts at Hartwick College, said "Chicago" is original.

"It's an exciting, good movie, and it's very different. It's something that people haven't seen before," he said.

Carter gave "Chicago" his vote even though he said he didn't like the movie's "MTV editing" and he would have liked to see more singers and dancers cast in the film.

"It's not often you see a movie and think, 'Why isn't Madonna in this?'" he said.

Most panelists predicted the movie's director, Rob Marshall, would win for best director, citing the trend of agreement between the best picture and directing categories, and the variety of elements in the film.

"The other choice would have been (Martin) Scorsese," Carter said, "but because there's so many elements in `Chicago' that do work, it's the director that pulls that all together."

Jensen disagreed, saying he believes this will be the year Scorsese, who directed "Gangs of New York," will be acknowledged with an Oscar.

"I think Rob Marshall did a top-notch job putting this together, and I admire what he did there," he said. "But I'm thinking it would be easy to classify 'Chicago' as a teamwork thing and not a single creative entity at work."

The "Chicago" momentum carried over to the best supporting actress category, with three picking Catherine Zeta-Jones and the lone dissenter championing co-star Queen Latifah.

"She really threw herself into it," Carter said of Zeta-Jones, who plays nightclub singer Velma Kelly. "Everyone was surprised to find out that she started on stage."

Jensen said Latifah, who plays jail warden Matron Mama Morton, was "talked about" in this part and did a satisfactory job.

"The fact that she comes from left field and does a flashy turn leads me to think that she will be the kind who slips in unexpectedly to defeat the better-known names," he said.

Nicole Kidman, who portrayed author Virginia Woolf in "The Hours," was three panelists' pick for best actress.

"Because she had a false nose," Jensen quipped.

"Given two or three equally challenged and equally well-played roles," he continued, "the one who most goes away from her familiar image is more likely to win."

Carter said Kidman played a tough role. "She was Virginia Woolf. She was amazing," he said, adding that the academy may also want to make up for snubbing Kidman's "Moulin Rouge" performance last year.

Golden said the best actress category is a "crapshoot," with the real race between Kidman and Renee Zellweger.

Zellweger, who played Roxie Hart in "Chicago," may win on the force of the movie, he said.

"I have a suspicion that 'Chicago' is going to sweep a lot of awards, but I don't know if Renee Zellweger is in the same league as Julianne Moore," he said. "It's probably a different-enough role that it will impress people - she's used to playing flakes."

For best supporting actor, panelists were divided, with two giving Jack Nicholson a nod for "About Schmidt."

"It's going to be very close between him and Daniel Day-Lewis, but he was my first choice," Mattison said. "I actually think it could end up splitting the votes, and Adrien Brody, he could sneak away with it."

Brody played Jewish pianist Wladyslaw Szpilman in "The Pianist."

Carter said he thought Nicholson would win for an "interesting performance," even though he thought Day-Lewis was better.

"If he wins this, he'll have more Academy Awards than anyone else," he said, adding that Nicholson would be tied with Katherine Hepburn.

Jensen said he was selecting Michael Caine — who previously won a best supporting actor Oscar — for his performance in "The Quiet American."

"He deserves it, but it has this extra little glow as finally acknowledging this man as a leading man," he said.

Golden selected Nicolas Cage for his role in "Adaptation."

"He's outside his normal Nicolas Cage thing enough, I think, for them to award him something," he said. "And I always like to go against the flow, to some extent."

Christopher Walken, for "Catch Me if You Can," was the favorite for best supporting actor, according to three panelists.

"He usually doesn't get such meaty roles," Golden said. "He usually plays heavies, but this time he got something with a little character to it, and he did very well."

Mattison said Chris Cooper, who played an orchid collector in "Adaptation," was his favorite.

"He's done some good work in the past, and he's finally getting recognized for it," Mattison said.

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Melissa Scram can be reached at mscram@thedailystar.com or (607) 441-7213.