Saturday, October 27, 2001
Redskins could be perfect remedy for Fassel's struggling Giants
By Bob Christ
Contributing Writer
A capsule look at Week 7 of the NFL:
SUNDAY'S GAMES
N.Y. Jets (3-3) at Carolina (1-5)
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Line: Jets by 21/2
The facts: Carolina rookie QB Chris Weinke has thrown eight interceptions the past three weeks, tying Kansas City's Trent Green for most in that span. Weinke threw two interceptions total in his first three pro games. ... The Jets' defense might be ranked last in the league for a reason. Their three losses have come against teams ranked 1-2-3 in offense - the Colts, Rams and 49ers. Carolina's offense, meanwhile, is ranked last in rushing. ... Jets RB Curtis Martin, who has missed only four games in seven years in the league, is on pace for a career year rushing. He averages 96.5 yards a game, which equates to 1,544 yards for 16 games. The most he's had was 1,487 for New England as a rookie in 1995, when he gained 4.0 a carry. He is at 4.6 this season.
Conclusion: The rage inside Carolina coach George Seifert must be bubbling. The Panthers threw away a 14-point fourth-quarter lead last week that enabled Washington to win its first game. Panthers TE Wesley Walls was particularly outspoken after the game. If the Jets care to avoid another big loss, they better not show expecting to face a team on a five-game losing streak.
Forecast: Panthers 27, Jets 17.
N.Y. Giants (3-3) at Washington (1-5)
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m.
Line: Giants by 71/2
The facts: New York had a 31-play advantage over Philadelphia in the first half Monday night but led only 9-0. ... Washington totaled 227 yards on its final 15 plays last week against Carolina, which is more than it gained in any of its previous five games. ... New York DE Michael Strahan not only leads the league in sacks with 10.5 but has forced an NFL-high four fumbles. ... Giants foes convert on 26.2 percent of third-down plays, the third lowest rate in the NFL. Offensively, Washington is last in the league, getting a first down on 22.5 percent of third-down plays. ... After throwing for five TDs in a victory for Baltimore against Jacksonville last season in Week 2, it took Redskins QB Tony Banks 12 games to throw five more.
Conclusion: After two consecutive losses, New York coach Jim Fassel might already be working on the script for his next post-game tirade. Maybe this year he'll promise that no team will ever get a first down on the Giants again, or they will block every punt. Whatever, chances are the Giants will fiddle with the Redskins this time like they did in Week 4 when they pulled away late to win, 23-9.
Forecast: Giants 31, Redskins 10.
Oakland (4-1) at Philadelphia (3-2)
Kickoff: 4:15 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 1
The facts: Is Al Davis on the scheduling committee? The Raiders are playing an Eagles team that is coming off a Monday night road game in New York. In November, Oakland will face the Giants, who will be coming off a Monday night road game in Minnesota. If not for the late schedule switch, the Raiders would have caught the Cowboys on short rest coming off a Monday night game with Washington. ... Raiders opponents complete 52.7 percent of their passes, the lowest rate in the league, a significant improvement from last season when the Raiders were seventh worst at 61.1 percent. ... The last time these teams met, in 1995 in Philadelphia, the Raiders won, 48-17. It's the most points the Eagles have yielded since losing, 62-10, to the Giants at Yankee Stadium 29 years ago.
Conclusion: Raiders coach Jon Gruden is emotional enough without having to face a team he helped guide as offensive coordinator on Ray Rhodes' Eagles staff from 1995-97. He's even had an extra week to create wrinkles that would befuddle the Eagles and impress Philadelphia fans. In his three previous years in Oakland, Gruden's team is 3-0 against the spread after bye weeks.
Forecast: Raiders 27, Eagles 13.
Buffalo (1-4) at San Diego (4-2)
Kickoff: 4:15 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 7
The facts: Buffalo already has faced the top three rushers in the league this season, yielding 135 yards to the Jets' Curtis Martin, 111 to the Colts' Edgerrin James and 113 to the Steelers' Jerome Bettis. The Bills see No. 4 this week. Chargers rookie LaDainian Tomlinson has 544 yards. ... In the past 12 months, Ex-Bills QB Doug Flutie is 8-2 as a starter, including 4-2 this year with San Diego. The Bills' Rob Johnson has gone 2-8, but is on a one-game winning streak. ... San Diego CB Ryan McNeil leads the league with six interceptions, which is three more than he had in his three previous seasons combined with St. Louis, Cleveland and Dallas. In 1997, however, he had led the league with nine for the Rams.
Conclusion: In addition to Flutie, there are three other ex-Bills on the Chargers who will be sweating adrenaline. Perhaps the only Buffalo player taking this game personally will be QB Rob Johnson, and we all know how well he plays under extra pressure. Then there's the matter of importance. The Chargers have visions of a playoff berth. The Bills can't wait to get home.
Forecast: Chargers 21, Bills 7.
New Orleans (3-2) at St. Louis (6-0)
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Line: Rams by 12
The facts: Saints RB Ricky Williams carries the load for his team more than any other player does for his, accounting for 41.9 percent of New Orleans' offense. Williams has 686 yards rushing and receiving. ... When the Rams saw their six-game, season-opening winning streaks end in Game 7 the past two seasons, both were on the road on grass (Tennessee, Kansas City). ... The 1929-1931 Packers are the only other team to have three consecutive 6-0 starts. In each of those years they won Games 7 and 8, too. ... Since Williams joined the Saints as a rookie in 1999, New Orleans has averaged 4.1 yards a rush the past three seasons. From 1994-98, the Saints never were better than 3.6 a carry. ... Post-concussion update: In Kurt Warner's final four regular-season games last season, after coming off his injury, he threw for three TDs and had eight interceptions. This year the ratio is 12-4.
Conclusion: Rams coach Mike Martz has grown to resent the Saints, who beat them twice last season, including the wild-card round of the playoffs. But while New Orleans receivers have been playing with alligator arms going across the middle, the Rams' defense has shown a hard-nosed look. Things could be vastly different this year.
Forecast: Rams 20, Saints 12.
San Francisco (4-1) at Chicago (4-1)
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Line: Bears by 21/2
The facts: Chicago's 24-0 victory over Cincinnati last week was the third shutout in the league this season, considerably shy of the NFL mark of 86 set in 1926. ... San Francisco kicker Jose Cortez, a member of the XFL champion Los Angeles Xtreme, is 11-for-11 on field goal attempts, best in the league. At Oregon State, he was 28-for-47 in his career. ... Since San Francisco WR Terrell Owens set an NFL mark with 20 receptions last season in a Week 16 game against Chicago, he has slumped to six catches a game. ... Through three games, the Bears had 182 rushing yards and a league-low 2.6-per-carry average. In their past two games, thanks largely to Anthony Thomas' team rookie record of 188 yards against Cincinnati last week, the Bears have totaled 340 yards.
Conclusion: San Francisco's offense is sort of a mystery. Although it ranked third, it hasn't scored a point in the first quarter. And, the 49ers haven't played any defensive heavyweights. In fact, four of their games were against foes who have a defense among the league's five worst - Atlanta twice, Carolina and the 31st-rated Jets. Chicago's is ranked 12th.
Forecast: Bears 22, 49ers 16.
Cincinnati (3-3) at Detroit (0-5)
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Line: Lions by 3
The facts: In addition to Marty Mornhinweg, there have been 20 coaches in the Detroit franchise's 72-year history and only one other lost his first five games. That was Bull Karcis, who went 0-8 in 1942 after taking over in midseason from Bill Edwards, who was fired after a 0-3 start. The next year Karcis was gone, too. He wound up playing fullback/linebacker for the Giants. ... Bengals kicker Neil Rackers is 6-for-12 (50 percent) on field goal attempts, the lousiest rate in the league. Even if he were to make 16 in a row, he wouldn't reach the success percentage of the rest of the NFL kickers, which is 79.2. ... The last time a winless team at least this deep into the season was this big a favorite was in 1998 when 0-7 Carolina was a three-point pick over visiting New Orleans. The Panthers won, 31-17.
Conclusion: The guys on TV keep saying the Lions are THE slowest team in the league, so how have they been able to stay close to quality foes such as Minnesota and Tennessee the past two weeks? The Bengals' swift defenders should give Detroit trouble.
Forecast: Bengals 14, Lions 10.
Jacksonville (2-3) at Baltimore (3-3)
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 7
The facts: Since scoring touchdowns on three consecutive first-half drives in their opener against Pittsburgh, which has the league's second-best defense, the Jaguars have scored four touchdowns their past 41/2 games. ... Go figure: In Baltimore's loss to Cleveland last week, the Browns were 0-for-10 in third-down conversions, tying a league record for ineffectiveness in the clutch that was first set a long time ago, perhaps by the Canton Bulldogs. Who knows? ... Although the Ravens have lost two games in a row, there's no need to panic. Last year they lost three in succession and still won the Super Bowl. No other team has ever done that. ... If banged-up QB Elvis Grbac gives his body a rest this week, Randall Cunningham would be the starter.
Conclusion: When Ravens coach Brian Billick was offensive coordinator for Minnesota in 1998, Cunningham started for the Vikings and threw for 34 TDs and 10 interceptions. These guys might still have that winning formula. For at least one game, Cunningham should be enough to help the Ravens overwhelm an injury-ravaged opponent.
Forecast: Ravens 27, Jaguars 7.
Minnesota (3-3) at Tampa Bay (2-3)
Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers by 3
The facts: Twice in the previous three seasons the Vikings traveled to Tampa Bay with a 7-0 record to face a Buccaneers team that had a 3-4 record. Tampa Bay won both times, including last year, 41-13. ... What gives? Tampa Bay foes are converting a league-best 51.6 of third-down plays this season, thanks in part to Minnesota, which was 9-for-12 in its Week 3 victory against the Bucs. Last season Tampa Bay was third best in the NFL in this defensive category. ... Slow starter: Keyshawn Johnson had eight TD catches in his previous two seasons, despite getting only one in the first seven games each year. This year he has no TDs through five games although he is second in the league with 41 catches.
Conclusion: Tampa Bay doesn't seem to have what it takes for the long haul, but seems capable of being dominant on occasion. The Bucs' defense, for instance, has the best interception rate in the league (one every 14.1 passes). And, as happens a lot in the NFC Central, the team that needs it more wins. That would be Tampa Bay this week.
Forecast: Buccaneers 24, Vikings 17.
Arizona (2-3) at Dallas (1-4)
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 3
The facts: Just the threat of Dallas QB Ryan Leaf getting to play has helped cause the point spread to sway drastically. On Monday, the Cowboys were listed as one-point favorites at Las Vegas sports books. ... Arizona's Jake Plummer, who threw an NFL-high 45 interceptions in 1999-2000, has gone two games in a row without one. His record for consecutive games without an interception is seven, occurring his rookie season in 1997, but he was on the bench for six of them. ... Cowboys QB Clint Stoerner is scheduled to get his first start. Last season he had the best passer rating among league QBs at 135.2, but he flew below radar because he threw only five times, completing three with one TD. This season he has a 115.2 rating, going 4-for-7 and two TDs.
Conclusion: This is the first time in 18 road games Arizona has been a favorite, so the Cardinals' confidence surely has to be on the rise. But at the same time, going against the Cowboys' third-string QB, and with Leaf on deck, perhaps the feel-good Cardinals are having one too many yuks during preparation. Dallas fired a couple of defensive starter this week, so a message has been sent.
Forecast: Cowboys 19, Cardinals 14.
Miami (3-2) at Seattle (3-2)
Kickoff: 4:15 p.m.
Line: Dolphins by 21/2
The facts: The Dolphins twice had turnovers inside the Jets' 7 two weeks ago. ... Seattle's Shaun Alexander has 318 yards rushing his past two games while replacing Ricky Watters. That's 48 yards less than Tampa Bay's season total. ... Miami's Jay Fiedler is ranked 27th in the passer rating category at 71.5, but that's still better than what Dan Marino had his final year in 1999. He was 31st with a 67.4 mark. ... Big improvement: Seattle was ranked last in defense last season, yielding 399 yards a game. The Seahawks are giving up 292 this year and are ranked ninth. ... Seattle QB Trent Dilfer, with a 13-game winning streak, retreats to the bench for newly healthy Matt Hasselbeck this week.
Conclusion: The Dolphins have struggled since their stunning victories at Tennessee and home with Oakland to open the season. RB Lamar Smith is nursing an ankle injury and averaging 3.3 yards a carry, which is putting an extra burden on Fiedler. But it's worse in Seattle, where Mike Holmgren has made it a point to groom Hasselbeck, who hasn't led a TD drive in three games this season.
Forecast: Dolphins 19, Seahawks 9.
New England (3-3) at Denver (3-3)
Kickoff: 4:15 p.m.
Line: Broncos by 7
The facts: New England's double upsets of Indianapolis the past month marked only the second time the past three seasons a team has swept a season series from a foe and won by at least 21 points both games. St. Louis beat Atlanta by 28 twice in 1999. ... The Patriots won in Denver last season as an eight-point underdog, 28-19. ... Broncos WR Rod Smith has a league-leading 51 catches, which is 10 more than anyone else. But he's averaging 11.7 a reception. Last year he averaged 16 yards on 100 catches. ... New England's Tom Brady, who has subbed for injured Drew Bledsoe the past four-plus games, is the only starting QB in the league without an interception. He has thrown for five TDs, as the Patriots have won three of four.
Conclusion: How are the Patriots doing it? One week they beat the Chargers despite only 29 rushing yards. The next week they give up 484 yards to the Colts and win big thanks to three long TDs by WR David Patten (throwing, running, passing). Just because Denver's Ed McCaffrey broke a leg is no reason for Denver to turn into the Kansas City Chiefs.
Forecast: Broncos 30, Patriots 16.
MONDAY NIGHT'SGAME
Tennessee (2-3) at Pittsburgh (4-1)
Kickoff: 9 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3
The facts: The Steelers not only are on a record pace by averaging 5.8 yards per rush, but their 197.6 yards average a game is the best rate in 23 years. New England got 197.8 a game in 1978, with Sam Cunningham leading the way with 768 yards. ... Of current coaches in the NFL, Tennessee's Jeff Fisher and Tampa Bay's Tony Dungy took the longest to earn their first victory, six games. Of course, Detroit's Marty Mornhinweg is at five and counting. Pittsburgh's Bill Cowher is one of three current sideline bosses who won his first three games. ... If Titans RB Eddie George doesn't improve production he won't reach 1,000 yards for the first time in his six-year career. He's at 290 through five games. In 1998 he gained 1,294 yards, which is his low-water mark.
Conclusion: Until Titans QB Steve McNair starts getting the ball to his wide receivers and thereby opening room for RB Eddie George to move (he averages 2.7 a carry), Tennessee's offense will remain flustered. On the other side, how will the Titans slow the Steelers, who have rushed for more than 200 yards in each of the past three games. The Titans even gave up a 100-yard game to the Ravens' Terry Allen.
Forecast: Steelers 23, Titans 7.
Last week: 5-7 vs. spread; 5-7 straight up.
Season total: 37-42-5 (.468) vs. spread; 50-34 (.595) straight up.
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