08/27/05
Even if you’re out of your league, keep these keepers to yourself
FANTASY ISLAND: FANTASY BASEBALL COLUMN BY MATT SCHAUF
Both of you who read this column last week know that my baseball season is essentially over and that, as a result, my main focus is figuring out keepers.
Well, my quandary got me thinking about what sorts of decisions other fantasy players might be weighing as the season wanes. Various formats allow for different numbers of keepers, but no matter how many guys you can hang onto, we’ll all have that tough decision or two.
That’s why this week on the island, I’m staging cage matches (AKA stat-and opinion-driven guesses) at a few positions to find out who should claim an early 2006 roster spot.
FIRST BASE
[an error occurred while processing this directive]Derrek Lee vs. Travis Hafner
Lee has many owners sitting on top as we hit the final month, but he presents one of the most common keeper questions: Can you trust the breakout season?
It’s easy to want to keep Lee around right now, but this might be a Terry Pendleton/Brady Anderson-type one-time spike in production. As a Cubs fan, I hope not. As a fantasy GM, I refused to swap David Ortiz for him.
Hafner, on the other hand, is putting up numbers very similar to last year, but with a better average. Without the beaning and ensuing power outage, he might have bettered all of his 2004 numbers. Plus, the Cleveland offense is younger and in better shape than Chicago’s.
This is tough, but I might have to go with Hafner.
SECOND BASE
Chase Utley vs. Jeff Kent
Kent has the better overall stats by a little this year in more at-bats. He’s also older, plays in a pitcher’s park and could be strangled by Dodgers teammate Milton Bradley at any time.
Utley will be the starter from Day 1 next year, hits in a phone booth of a stadium and is 26. This is a no-brainer.
THIRD BASE
David Wright vs. Scott Rolen
Wright bounced around the Mets’ lineup this year while the team was reluctant to drop Mike Piazza to where he belongs. Wright still has hit all season, but he’s really been ripping it and producing runs since locking up a middle-of-the-order spot.
Rolen gets a pass this year because of the freak shoulder injury that resulted from a collision at first. He’ll still hit in a power-packed lineup next year in a new stadium that if the team is smart shouldn’t hurt right-handed hitters. The bum shoulder and long layoff could mean rust at the beginning of the year, though, while Wright is taking off. I’ll take the Met, which you won’t hear often from me.
SHORTSTOP
Rafael Furcal vs. Michael Young
If you have to make the call right now, this probably comes down to how highly you value stolen bases. I’m guessing Furcal a free agent after this year will be in a new uniform next April, though, and a new park (Wrigley, maybe?) could mean more homers for the guy who’s perennially around 15.
Young you know will hit (and hit and hit), but steals come at a premium. If you’re allowed to wait, keep an eye on Furcal.
STARTING PITCHER
John Patterson vs. Randy Johnson
What? Am I serious? Is this even a consideration? Oh yeah. Johnson has looked very average in the Bronx, and those pinstripes certainly haven’t had any slimming effect on his ERA.
Patterson could be another one of those one-year wonders, or he could be a 27-year-old starter putting things together in his third major-league season.
Johnson is one of the most dominant lefties ever, but nagging back problems don’t tend to go away, especially in your 40s, and knee ligaments don’t regenerate. I’d take my chances with the new guy in the capital, especially as long as the Nationals are calling a pitcher’s park home.
I’d love to hit a few more positions before I sail away, but that’s about all the space they give me each week.
Before I go, though, consider these factors as you make your selections: age, speed and consistency. Younger guys should be keeper-worthy longer, speed is easier to maintain from year to year than success at the plate, and players who have done it more than once are more likely to do it again.
Matt Schauf strives for keeper status every week in The Daily Star. E-mail him at mschauf63@hotmail.com to say you’d rather have So Taguchi.
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