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04/25/06

Take a gamble by moving these players early

FANTASYLAND — FANTASY BASEBALL COLUMN BY FRANK COPPOLA

Kenny Rogers — the singer, not the Tigers pitcher — once told us that you gotta know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em.

That was long before fantasy sports entered the mainstream of American culture, but it won’t stop us from soaking up Kenny’s wisdom.

Some owners out there are content with drafting a team, sitting back and hoping everything magically falls into place. No trades. Few player acquisitions. Fear of change.

Not only is that boring, it’s not strategically sound if you have designs on winning your league’s championship. Everyone has momentary lapses of judgment during the draft — take it from someone who owns Adrian Beltre and his .175 batting av[an error occurred while processing this directive]erage. But mistakes can be overcome.

The key to any fantasy season is plugging those leaks in your lineup, and there’s no better way to do that than buying low and selling high. If you stumbled upon a pot of gold during your draft — Detroit’s Chris Shelton, for example — don’t be afraid to trade him when his value is at its highest point.

Along those same lines, keep an eye on big-name players, such as Manny Ramirez, who are making your rival owners pull out their hair. Trading for struggling stars like Ramirez can be a stroke of genius, especially if the bait is a guy like Shelton, who is playing well over his head.

Throughout the season we’ll be revealing some players to go after and some to cut loose. Remember what Kenny Rogers taught us.

BUY LOW

Bobby Crosby, SS, Athletics

The season got off to a rough start for Crosby, who suffered a minor hand injury in the A’s opener and hit .224 with one homer in his first 13 games. Some baseball people, notably ESPN’s Peter Gammons and Jayson Stark, picked Crosby to win the AL’s MVP award this year. That’s a pipe dream, but Crosby will be fine.

Coco Crisp, CF, Red Sox

Injuries, no matter how big or small, give some fantasy owners night terrors. Usually it’s best to take a deep breath and look at the big picture. Crisp fractured his left index finger April 8, but he’s aiming to return in the first week of May. He’s got about five good months and 100 runs ahead of him.

Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers

Furcal, who hit .231 with two RBIs in his first 16 games, is testing the patience of his owners. But if you look deeper into the numbers (11 walks, 13 runs, four steals), you’ll see that he’s actually not off to a terrible start. If you’re struggling at shortstop, see if you can get him cheap.

Carlos Zambrano, SP, Cubs

Control problems have plagued Zambrano (0-1, 3.97 ERA) in his first four starts. The big right-hander has walked 17 batters in 22 2/3 innings, frustrating those who spent an early-round pick on him. Still winless on the season, Zambrano will never be more available for a good price.

Jon Garland, SP, White Sox

Garland, who won 18 games as one of last season’s big surprises, got hammered in his first two starts, allowing 23 hits and 16 runs in 10 1/3 innings. He bounced back nicely in his third start, throwing six strong innings, but the scars remain from those early struggles.

SELL HIGH

Chris Shelton, 1B, Tigers

You’ve got to test the trade market here. Shelton (.406, nine homers, 18 RBIs) is more than capable of a strong season, but he’s not going to keep pace with Albert Pujols throughout the summer. If Shelton could land you someone like Todd Helton, Carlos Delgado or Lance Berkman in a trade, pull the trigger.

Greg Maddux, SP, Cubs

It’s great how the four-time Cy Young winner has bounced back this season, but Maddux (3-0, 1.33 ERA) just turned 40 and still plays his home games at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. Although his track record demands caution when exploring a trade, see if Maddux can fetch you someone like Jake Peavy or Rich Harden in a package deal.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, Marlins

If Josh Beckett weren’t off to such a good start, the Fenway Faithful would be lamenting the offseason trade that sent Ramirez, among others, to the Marlins. The former Sox farmhand hit .367 with seven RBIs and 16 runs in his first 14 games, but can he keep it up? Ramirez hit .271 with six homers at Double-A Portland last season.

Brad Hawpe, RF, Rockies

Hawpe can clearly hit — he batted .322 with 31 homers in 92 games at Triple-A during the 2004 season — but even he had to be surprised by this start. Hawpe homered in four straight games earlier this month and batted .352 with 13 RBIs in his first 15 games. If someone in your league is desperate for outfield help, see what Hawpe can fetch you in return.

Ty Wigginton, 3B, Devil Rays

A part-time player for the lowly Pirates last season, Wigginton is taking advantage of a full-time gig in Tampa Bay. He hit .293 with seven homers and 17 RBIs in his first 15 games, but Wigginton’s true value could be his versatility; he’s already played games at third base, second base, first base and outfield this season. Shop him around.

STUD OF THE WEEK

Albert Pujols, Cardinals

Is there any better feeling than owning Pujols in a keeper league? The game’s best player hit .500 (10-for-20) with seven homers, 14 RBIs and 10 runs in six games this week. He’s on pace for 110 home runs and 240 RBIs.

DUD OF THE WEEK

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies

That 38-game hitting streak is long gone now. Rollins hit .181 (4-for-22) in six games this week, with one RBI and no stolen bases.

Despite the slump, Rollins entered the weekend batting .288 with 11 runs. He’ll bounce back sooner rather than later.

Frank Coppola is the assistant sports editor for Seacoast Media Group in Portsmouth, N.H. He can be reached at fcoppola@seacoastonline.com.




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