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9-25-2006

Without Coles, Jets likely to struggle against Bills

By Bob Christ

Contributing Writer

&bodytext;N.Y. Jets (1-1)

at Buffalo (1-1)

&bodytext;Time: 1 p.m.

&bodytext;Line: Bills by 6

&bodytext;Facts: Jets QB Chad Pennington is shooting for his third consecutive 300-yard game. Even Joe Namath never accomplished that. But Pennington might be without WR Laveranues Coles (questionable, calf), one of three receivers with two 100-yard days this year. ... Buffalo had the league’s fifth-worst offense last year, at 256.3 yards a game. It’s getting uglier. Its 205.5 norm this season is half a yard off its worst average in history (1968). ... Buffalo RB Willis McGahee had five 100-yard rushing games last season, including two against the Jets.

&bodytext;Analysis: Pennington (probable, calf) had two-thirds of his 306 yards last week after the Jets fell behind 24-0 to New England. Let’s see him do it again this week in rain and wind without his leading receiver at full speed. Or without a decent running game. Their 2.4 yards a carry rank next to last in the league.

&bodytext;Forecast: Bills 19, Jets 7

&bodytext;&bodytext;N.Y. Giants (1-1)[an error occurred while processing this directive]

at Seattle (2-0)

Time: 4:15 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 3 1/2

Facts: New York committed 11 false starts in last year’s game at Seattle. The Giants had better hope the Seahawks don’t amplify the noise by piping in sound of Mike Holmgren complaining about the Super Bowl refs. ... The Giants beat the Eagles, 30-24, last week even though Eli Manning was sacked eight times. The last time a team won despite such QB brutality was when Arizona KO’d Minnesota, 18-17, in the 2004 season finale and Cade McNown went down eight times.

Analysis: Since Seattle RB Shaun Alexander (probable, foot) signed his mega-bucks contract after last season’s rushing title, he’s averaged 70 yards in two games at 3.1 yards a pop, which is 2 yards a carry off last year’s norm. It’s a good thing Seattle is going to a more passing attack.

Forecast: Seahawks 31, Giants 21

&bodytext;Cincinnati (2-0)

at Pittsburgh (1-1)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 2

Facts: Cincinnati will be without veteran center Rich Braham, and its left guard and tackle are ailing. So much for a running game that didn’t reach 100 yards in any of three games against PIttsburgh last season. ... Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw 32 times last week in a 9-0 loss at Jacksonville, his second most passes in history. He had 41 last year in a 38-31 loss to the Bengals. ... On Pittsburgh’s final eight drives against the Jags on Monday, its average starting field position was inside its 15.

Analysis: The Steelers won’t give up on the running game this week after only 14 carries last week in Jacksonville. In last year’s Bengals game at Pittsburgh, the Steelers had 47 rushes for 221 yards, with Willie Parker averaging 7.3 a carry on 18 rushes. Pittsburgh should dominate possession.

Forecast: Steelers 31, Bengals 21

&bodytext;Jacksonville (2-0)

at Indianapolis (2-0)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Colts by 7

Facts: The Colts were 9 1/2-point favorites before the Jaguars beat Pittsburgh on Monday night. ... The Jaguars, who have allowed seven points the past seven quarters, didn’t allow the Steelers a drive longer than 26 yards on 11 possessions last week. ... In 2005, the Colts won, 10-3, at home against Jacksonville, the fewest points scored by Indy at home since the pre-Peyton Colts were 9-6 losers to Buffalo in 1997. ... Colts rookie RB Joseph Addai is averaging 4.7 on 23 rushes and soon could hog most carries.

Analysis: How good is that Colts pass rush, really? They never got to the Giants’ Eli Manning in Week 1, yet Manning went down eight times against Philadelphia. And what about that rush defense? It’s at 5.8 yards a carry, which is worse than any team ever yielded for a season in history. Jacksonville RB Fred Taylor should thrive.

Forecast: Jaguars 21, Colts 20

&bodytext;Tennessee (0-2)

at Miami (0-2)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Dolphins by 11

Facts: Miami coach Nick Saban hasn’t coached a team this heavily favored since his last home game at LSU in 2004. ... Kerry Collins’ passer rating of 1.3 last week for Tennessee is the worst for a starter the past two seasons. And he wasn’t even sacked. ... Miami QB Daunte Culpepper led an offense that scored six points against a Buffalo defense that played rookie safeties last week. He also was sacked seven times, which was three more than any Dolphins QB was caught last season.

Analysis: If Culpepper can’t solve the riddle of the Titans’ defense, which was ranked worst in the league last year, Dolphins fans will soon feel the creepy chills of watching Joey Harrington warm up on the sideline. Second-year Miami RB Ronnie Brown should be the key to keeping Harrington at bay.

Forecast: Dolphins 24, Titans 10

&bodytext;Washington (0-2)

at Houston (0-2)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Redskins by 3 1/2

Facts: Houston’s David Carr, who has been little more than a pinata in the pocket for the Texans in his five-year career, is the only QB in the league who’s had a passer rating of 100-plus the first two games. ... The Texans and Broncos are the lone teams in the league not to start a possession inside the 50. ... Redskins RB Clinton Portis, who sat out Sunday’s loss in Dallas, pronounced himself ready to go (shoulder, probable).

Analysis: After two games, 36-year-old Washington QB Mark Brunell is being skewered as the wrong man for the job. So what are they going to do, give the keys to a rookie and expect him to digest a 700-page playbook? Maybe they can trade for Patrick Ramsey. Cornerbacks have got to be slobbering at the chance to catch Brunell’s sideline floaters.

Forecast: Texans 20, Redskins 14

&bodytext;Chicago (2-0)

at Minnesota (2-0)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Bears by 3 1/2

Facts: Chicago has outscored its two foes by a cumulative 60-7. Three years ago, the Bills had a 69-17 advantage in its first two games but went 4-10 the rest of the way. ... Minnesota held Chicago to 192 yards total offense in Week 6 last year, but suffered its second worst loss of the season (28-3). The Bears had TD marches of 1 and 3 yards. ... Vikings boss Brad Childress is one of two rookie coaches to start 2-0 this year, along with New Orleans’ Sean Payton.

Analysis: Though the Bears have played pushovers in Weeks 1 and 2 (Packers, Lions), they are averaging 2.8 yards a rush, fifth worst in the league. But the Vikings are missing DE Erasmus James, who’s a key to that defense. Not only that, but their top receivers are questionable.

Forecast: Bears 24, Vikings 14

&bodytext;Carolina (0-2)

at Tampa Bay (0-2)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Panthers by 3

Facts: The Buccaneers have scored three points and punted 12 times through two games. The last team to have more punts than points in a season was the 1944 Brooklyn Tigers. ... Last year’s leading receiver, Carolina’s Steve Smith, was seen practicing late this week, but he’s still questionable (hamstring). ... The last 0-3 team to reach the postseason was Buffalo in 1998 as a wild card. ... Despite throwing for 313 yards, the Bucs’ Chris Simms had a passer rating of only 47.1, the second worst for a QB with that many yards the past two years.

Analysis: At full strength, Smith turns the balance to the Panthers. Otherwise, the Bucs appear to have the edge, thanks to a healing offensive line and the fact RB Cadillac Williams didn’t make news with any of his ailments. Perhaps we’ll even see some triple reverse suggested by visiting President Bush.

Forecast: Buccaneers 20, Panthers 17

&bodytext;Green Bay (0-2)

at Detroit (0-2)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Lions by 6 1/2

Facts: The Lions haven’t been this big a favorite over Green Bay since it was a 10-point choice in Detroit in 1992. The Packers won, 27-13. ... The Lions’ defensive passer rating of 125.9 is on pace to be the worst in history. That eclipses any rating any QB ever had in a season. ... The Packers, 4-9 at Detroit the past 13 seasons, had only 216 yards total offense there last year, their lowest total anywhere the past five seasons. And RB Ahman Green wasn’t hurt yet.

Analysis: Unless the Saints’ defense is that awful, perhaps Green Bay’s Brett Favre is making a tiny comeback, having two more TDs than interceptions last week for the first time in 12 games. These teams were pulverized by the Bears, but Chicago had four TD drives against Detroit and one against Green Bay.

Forecast: Packers 19, Lions 17

&bodytext;Baltimore (2-0)

at Cleveland (0-2)

Time: 4:05 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 7

Facts: Cleveland workhorse RB Reuben Droughns is questionable (shoulder). No other Browns back has more than two carries. ... The passer rating of the Ravens’ first two opposing QBs was below the Mendoza line (Chris Simms 30.5, Andrew Walter 18.5). Cleveland’s 27th-ranked Charlie Frye is next. ... Baltimore’s overall defensive passer rating is 21.2. How remarkable is that? Consider that former Ravens starter Kyle Boller hasn’t ever had a game that bad in his four-year career.

Analysis: Even with Steve McNair in at QB for the Ravens, they haven’t been a smooth-running machine _ not scoring a TD on any of their league-high nine drives that started in enemy territory. But that should change going against a team that has been hurting in the secondary.

Forecast: Ravens 21, Browns 7

&bodytext;St. Louis (1-1)

at Arizona (1-1)

Time: 4:15 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 4 1/2

Facts: Arizona QB Kurt Warner has more fumbles (seven) than any other team this season. ... When the Cardinals’ Anquan Boldin got his 62nd receiving yard last week in Seattle, Roger Maris’ son jumped out of the stands and stopped play to pose in a photo-op. ... St. Louis’ new coach, Scott Linehan, was offensive coordinator in Minnesota in 2003 when the Vikings led the league in total offense. But his Rams have only one TD in two games, that being a 40-yard drive.

Analysis: With Rams OLT Orlando Pace (concussion, questionable) unlikely to participate at full speed Sunday, will Marc Bulger still be standing Sunday night? He was sacked six times last week by the 49ers. Arizona got to St. Louis QBs nine times last year with Pace in the lineup.

Forecast: Cardinals 27, Rams 13

&bodytext;Philadelphia (1-1)

at San Francisco (1-1)

Time: 4:15 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 6

Facts: Last week wasn’t the worst fourth-quarter chokeroo by the Eagles in their history. That occurred in 1985 when they blew a 23-0 lead in a 28-23 home loss to Minnesota. ... Big turnaround: Last year the 49ers had the worst-ranked offense in the league. This year their offense is sixth best. ... In last year’s Week 2 meeting, Philadelphia outgained San Francisco, 583-142, with Donovan McNabb throwing for five TDs. The 441-yard differential was the greatest in any game last year. ... Eagles RB Brian Westbrook is questionable (knee).

Analysis: 49ers QB Alex Smith, who had one TD throw and 11 interceptions as a rookie in 2005, has two TDs and no INTs this year, protecting the ball like all get-out. But he’s only been sacked once. That’s likely to change against a defense that leads the league with 13.

Forecast: Eagles 28, 49ers 14

&bodytext;Denver (1-1)

at New England (2-0)

Time: 8:15 p.m.

Line: Patriots by 6 1/2

Facts: Both of the Broncos’ victories against the Patriots last year were in Denver, including a 27-13 second-round playoff victory with a plus-4 turnover differential. ... Denver hasn’t given up a TD this season, but it is one of three teams in the league to yield 100-yard games to rushers in Weeks 1 and 2. Last year, only two rushers reached 100 against the Broncos. ... The Patriots, meanwhile, are third in the league in carries and yards (80-330). Their 4.1 rushing norm is 0.7 better than last year.

Analysis: The Patriots have used both the 3-4 and 4-3 defense this season, which will only serve to further buffalo Denver QB Jake Plummer, who helped generate one TD in two weeks. The Patriots’ double-duty running game of rookie Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon should keep Denver off the field.

Forecast: Patriots 20, Broncos 10

&bodytext;MONDAY NIGHT

Atlanta (2-0)

at New Orleans (2-0)

Time: 8:30 p.m.

Line: Falcons by 3 1/2

Facts: This is the 74th meeting between these rivals and only the third time both have had records at least two games over .500. ... New Orleans had turnovers on its first three drives in Green Bay last week and still won. No team had done that anywhere since St. Louis beat Arizona in the 2004 opener. ... A lot has been made of the Saints starting 2-0 on the road for the first time. Well, it was only the third time they ever opened with two on the road. ... Atlanta’s Warrick Dunn, the league’s leading rusher, was a 25-1 long shot to win the ground-gaining title this season. So was Oakland’s LaMont Jordan.

Analysis: We’ll see if New Orleans’ new coach actually is a magician. After close-call victories against woebegone Cleveland and Green Bay, there are no more empty calories on their schedule. Atlanta had more rushing yards last week (306) than any Tampa Bay foe in history. If the Falcons are aiming to break another rushing mark, their target is 340 yards, the most the Saints ever gave up.

Forecast: Falcons 38, Saints 20

Last week: 8-8 vs. spread; 12-4 straight up

Season total: 19-13 (.594) vs. spread; 23-9 (.718) straight up