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10-28-2006

Expect Giants to thump Bucs; Jets should nip Browns

By Bob Christ

Contributing Writer

A capsule look at Week 8 of the NFL season.

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Tampa Bay (2-4)

at N.Y. Giants (4-2)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Giants by 9

Facts: Until the Giants gouged Dallas for 155 rushing yards last week, the Cowboys hadn’t given up more than 93 in a game this season. Now, N.Y. goes against a unit that yields 5.1 a carry, second worst in the NFL. ... Slow starters: In the Bucs’ six games, they have scored on one of their opening four possessions. Three ended with interceptions and 12 others were three-and-outs. ... This game opens a stretch of three consecutive weeks at home for the Giants. The last time that happened was in 1983, Bill Parcells’ first season as boss.

Analysis: Bucs coach Jon Gruden took joy in bragging that his team isn’t dead after last week’s miracle victory against the Eagles. But the team’s passing game is on life support, averaging a league-worst 9.5 yards a completion. Rookie QB Bruce Gradkowski isn’t the answer for injured Chris Simms.[an error occurred while processing this directive]

Forecast: Giants 34, Buccaneers 14

N.Y. Jets (4-3)

at Cleveland (1-5)

Time: 4:15 p.m.

Line: Browns by 2

Facts: The Browns accepted the resignation of offensive coordinator Maurice Carthon a day after their 17-7 home loss to Denver. A move to another coordinator, though, didn’t help Arizona a week earlier. ... Jets rookie RB Leon Washington has had two 100-yard games the past three weeks. His 4.9 yards per carry is tied for ninth best in the league. Cleveland, meanwhile, is second worst with a norm of 3.1 yards a rush. ... This is the third consecutive Jets foe that enters the game with one victory.

Analysis: Second-year Cleveland QB Charlie Frye, who has a league-high 10 interceptions, probably couldn’t get his old job back in Akron today. With windy conditions expected by the lake, and with a struggling running game, the Browns could struggle for first downs.

Forecast: Jets 10, Browns 7

Houston (2-4)

at Tennessee (1-5)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Titans by 3

Facts: These are the only teams in the league to win games as seven-point underdogs or more. The Titans, who are coming off a bye, won as 11-point underdogs at Washington two weeks ago; the Texans were an eight-point underdog when they beat Jacksonville last week. ... Houston, which intercepted 22 passes two years ago, has had eight the past two seasons, including one this year. ... Tennessee QBs are completing 47.1 percent of their passes. Over the previous four seasons, no team has been at less than 50 percent.

Analysis: Perhaps more impressive than Tennessee’s stunner in Washington, when it rallied from 11 points down, was when it lost, 14-13, at Indianapolis a week earlier as an 18-point underdog. And with a bye week in the Titans’ pocket, it seems they are on the rise behind rookie QB Vince Young.

Forecast: Titans 24, Texans 16

Jacksonville (3-3)

at Philadelphia (4-3)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 8

Facts: The Eagles outgained the Bucs by 310 yards last week yet lost, 23-21, on that 62-yard kick. The last time a team fell despite such a yardage edge was in 2002, when Houston beat Pittsburgh, 24-6, despite being outgained, 422-47. ... The Jags, who are missing several defensive stalwarts, including leading tackler Mike Peterson, also might not have QB Byron Leftwich (ankle, questionable). David Garrard is No. 2. ... Eagles QB Donovan McNabb’s 76 rushing yards last week was his highest total since getting 107 in their "fourth-and-26" playoff victory against Green Bay three seasons ago.

Analysis: The Eagles are averaging 6.8 yards a play, almost a yard better than the nearest team. And their ability to recover from large deficits the past two weeks, despite eventually losing, is a credit to their veteran leadership.

Forecast: Eagles 35, Jaguars 17

Atlanta (4-2)

at Cincinnati (4-2)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Bengals by 4

Facts: Michael Vick’s four scoring passes last week for Atlanta against Pittsburgh were two more than he’s had in any other game in his six-year career. Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer has had two four-TD games, including one five weeks ago, also against Pittsburgh. ... There have been 13 times a team rushed for 200-plus yards in a game this season, and the Falcons have done it four times; the Bengals gave up 236 to the Patriots in Week 4. ... Atlanta’s Alge Crumpler had 117 receiving yards last week, the second most for a tight end this season.

Analysis: The Falcons, playing on the Bengals’ soft grass, will be at a disadvantage with their smallish defensive line against a Cincinnati running game that became rejuvenated last week with Rudi Johnson.

Forecast: Bengals 31, Falcons 21

San Francisco (2-4)

at Chicago (6-0)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Bears by 16

Facts: What happened to Cody Pickett, the fourth-string 49ers QB who started against Chicago last year? In wind gusting to 47 mph, he was 1-for-13 with an interception in Chicago’s 17-9 victory. ... Speaking of bad days, Chicago’s Rex Grossman dropped from fourth in the passer rankings to 18th after his four-interception game in Arizona in Week 6. His passer rating of 10.7 was the second worst for anyone this season. ... The nine points the 49ers scored last year is the most Chicago has yielded at home its past nine regular-season games. Carolina, though, had 29 in the postseason.

Analysis: Since the Bears have outscored foes by an average of 24-7 at home the past two regular seasons, this line seems right on. If Chicago can shut down 49ers workhorse RB Frank Gore like they did the Cardinals’ Edgerrin James, second-year QB Alex Smith will need smelling salts.

Forecast: Bears 24, 49ers 3

Arizona (1-6)

at Green Bay (2-4)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Packers by 4

Facts: Arizona is leading the league with 20 takeaways, but a lot of good that’s done them. They’ve forced a total of 10 the past two games and lost them both. ... Green Bay’s Brett Favre has gone two games in a row without throwing an interception. He had a two-game stretch like that last year, too, but threw five his next game. ... History in the making: If the Cardinals lose they will set a league record for consecutive seasons without a winning record on the road, 24. They share the mark with the Packers of 1973-95.

Analysis: Much like the recent 49ers-Raiders game, this game isn’t for pride _ it’s to avoid embarrassment. Green Bay hasn’t lost at home to the Cards since 1949. Arizona, meanwhile, likely would share the label as worst team in the league _ with Miami and Detroit _ if it loses this one after being drubbed by Oakland.

Forecast: Cardinals 24, Packers 23

Seattle (4-2)

at Kansas City (3-3)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Off

Facts: All of a sudden, two first-time starters could work at QB: Seattle’s Seneca Wallace and Kansas City’s Brodie Coyle. Regular Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck injured a knee last week and is out; the Chiefs’ scheduled starter, Damon Huard, sat out Friday’s practice with a hamstring injury. His status reportedly will be a game-time decision. ... The Chiefs’ Larry Johnson rushed for 132 yards, and TE Tony Gonzalez had 138 receiving yards in their 30-27 victory against San Diego last week, the only time this season the Chargers allowed a 100-yard rusher or receiver.

Analysis: At this stage last season, the Seahawks had by far the league’s most productive offense. Now it’s ranked 21st, a drop of 86.6 yards a game. And without defending rushing champ Shaun Alexander and Hasselbeck, Seattle’s not likely to improve. But K.C.’s in dire straits, too, at QB.

Forecast: Chiefs 7, Seahawks 6

Baltimore (4-2)

at New Orleans (5-1)

Time: 1 p.m.

Line: Saints by 2

Facts: Baltimore QB Kyle Boller threw for three TDs in relief of Steve McNair (concussion) against Carolina two weeks ago, but he’ll be probably be back on the bench this week. McNair says he’s feeling fine. ... In Sean Payton’s first year as Saints coach, the team is off to its best start since 2002, when Jim Haslett’s club opened 6-1 but finished 9-7. Haslett’s first team had greater success, going 10-6 in 2000 and then getting the only playoff victory in franchise history. ... Baltimore’s offense is ranked 28th in the league, which is largely why offensive coordinator Jim Fassel was jettisoned.

Analysis: The Ravens have been riding their No. 1-rated pass defense and a unit that has allowed a league-low 2.7 yards a rush, the same norm as the 2000 Super Bowl champs. If hobbled Saints RB Deuce McAllister (hamstring, probable) doesn’t want to play much, it could be trouble for QB Drew Brees.

Forecast: Ravens 21, Saints 13

St. Louis (4-2)

at San Diego (4-2)

Time: 4:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 10

Facts: When these teams met six years ago, the Rams had 614 yards total offense in a 57-31 victory, the most yards in regulation the past 20 seasons. ... Two weeks ago, the Chargers had touchdowns on their first four drives against San Francisco. Last week in Kansas City, the Chargers had three turnovers and a three-and-out to open up. ... San Diego RB LaDainian Tomlinson (131 yards) and St. Louis’ Steven Jackson (121) had their best rushing performances on opening day but haven’t come close to matching those totals since.

Analysis: San Diego, which gave up 30 points in Kansas City last week, is reeling from the suspension of linebacking standout Shawne Merriman (probably out the next four weeks) and injured leading sacker Shaun Phillips. Jackson’s bulldozing running and Marc Bulger’s passing should keep it close.

Forecast: Chargers 23, Rams 20.

Pittsburgh (2-4)

at Oakland (1-5)

Time: 4:15 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 9

Facts: Ben Roethlisberger has been cleared to play after being knocked unconscious briefly last week in Atlanta. That makes two head injuries and an appendectomy since minicamp. ... The Raiders, who in Week 7 became the last team to win a game, converted 13 third-down tries against Arizona, a league high. ... These franchises hold the league record for consecutive seasons meeting in the postseason _ five years from 1972-76. Pittsburgh won three of them.

Analysis: Incredibly, Oakland has the league’s fifth-rated defense, which has held foes without a TD the past seven quarters. Although Roethlisberger appeared to have become a passing force again after a rotten opening month, how much will last week’s hit set him back?

Forecast: Steelers 13, Raiders 10

Indianapolis (6-0)

at Denver (5-1)

Time: 4:15 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 2.5

Facts: This marks the second year in a row the Broncos lost their opener and then won five in a row. ... Flashback: The game was listed as pick-em this summer. ... Top-ranked passer Peyton Manning had four TD throws and no interceptions against Washington last week, the first time he’s done that in a game since Week 4 of 2005. The Broncos, meanwhile, have given up two TDs all year. ... Denver’s Jake Plummer is the 32nd-ranked passer in a 32-team league. His passer rating norm of 60.6 is worse than in any of his final 17 games of last season.

Analysis: The Broncos have been regular-season heroes against the Colts, winning in 2003 and 2004. But they got pummeled in the postseason, by 31 and 25 points. With stellar left tackle Dave Lepsis out and with RB Tatum Bell slowed by a toe injury (probable), it’s going to be hard work to outscore the Colts.

Forecast: Colts 20, Broncos 16

Dallas (3-3)

at Carolina (4-3)

Time: 8:15 p.m.

Line: Panthers by 5

Facts: The point spread jumped by 2 after linesmakers saw how the Cowboys played in their 36-22 loss to New York on Monday night. Or maybe it’s because Tony Romo is their new QB. ... Carolina’s Jake Delhomme had a Drew Bledsoe moment late in last week’s loss at Cincinnati, throwing a back-breaking interception at Cincinnati’s 10-yard line when down by three points. ... Dallas QBs have thrown five interceptions inside their foes’ 35 the past three games. In their previous 19 games, dating to the 2005 opener, that happened a total of two times.

Analysis: Perhaps the Cowboys should have substituted in their backup pass-blocking coach, too, to teach these guys their assignments. Bill Parcells is a brainy coach, though, so he’s going to put the ball back in RB Julius Jones’ hands, and maybe he can start another three-game streak of 100-yard games.

Forecast: Cowboys 20, Panthers 17

MONDAY NIGHT

New England (5-1)

at Minnesota (4-2)

Time: 8:30 p.m.

Line: Patriots by 2

Facts: The Vikings are the only team in the league to score on each of its first possessions this season, but five ended with field goals. ... New England started three drives inside Buffalo’s 42 last week, all off turnovers, and scored 17 points. Conversely, the Vikings started three drives inside Seattle’s 42 and didn’t get a point. ... Only the Ravens are stuffing the run better than the Vikings, who yield 3.1 a carry. ... New England QB Tom Brady, who doesn’t have his top two receivers from 2005, is averaging 6.5 yards a throw, down by 1.3 yards over his two previous seasons.

Analysis: It’s been five years since the Vikings were hosts to a Monday night extravaganza, and teams coming off such droughts tend to put forth extraordinary efforts, such as Arizona’s two weeks ago and Jacksonville’s in Week 2, when it shut out Pittsburgh.

Forecast: Vikings 21, Patriots 14

Last week: 7-4-1 vs. spread; 5-8 straight up

Season total: 49-44-6 (.527) vs. spread; 60-40 (.600) straight up