11-18-2006
Don’t trust people to make your lineup calls
Let’s call this empowerment week on the island, because I’m about to give you the best piece of advice you’ll ever receive from some fantasy dude.
It’s already going to seem a bit contradictory within the confines of what is essentially an advice column, so I’ll thrown in some convoluted language just for effect. Here goes:
Never always trust anyone with your fantasy lineup.
Get it?
OK, to put it in clearer English, nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen with all or even most NFL players in a given week. Anyone who tells you he or she does is lying. Sure, some of us know the game better than others, have more insight into certain matchups or pay more attention to the proper numbers, but even with all the right knowledge, we all end up guessing on some level.
With that in mind, go ahead and take suggestions, arguments and advice from whomever you prefer every week, but always be the one who sets your own lineup.
Do you think Tony Romo’s for real despite some idiot columnist not being ready to trust him and feeling safer with Damon Huard (yeah, that was me last week)? Take a shot with Romo. It’s much easier to get over making the wrong call yourself (which happens plenty to all of us) than to get over losing because you went along with some guy on the Internet.
I’m not saying this as a cop-out. I’ll continue to make my cases for certain players in print and online, and I feel like a jerk when someone I recommend has a bad week. (If it makes you feel better, I hurt my teams with such things as well.) This is just to say that none of us has all the answers, which was blatantly clear in Week 10. Who would have known coming into this season "" or even a month ago "" that the Texans would sweep the Jaguars, or that David Garrard would throw four interceptions to a defense that had two in its previous eight games?
Who could have guessed that Minnesota’s Billy McMullen "" with one touchdown in three seasons with the Eagles "" would reach the end zone twice, once on a fumble recovery?
The top 10 in receiving yardage included Drew Bennett (against Baltimore), Malcolm Floyd and Patrick Crayton.[an error occurred while processing this directive]
Ben Roethlisberger went from having seven interceptions in two games to throwing three TD passes in a home victory over the Saints. Rex Grossman came back from a terrible outing against Miami and a bad start in the Meadowlands "" including a first-possession interception by a defensive end "" to throw for three scores in the rain against a defense that had allowed 16 total points in its past three home games.
Torry Holt can go scoreless against an opponent that let him reach the end zone three times in the first meeting. His quarterback can fall 145 yards and three touchdowns short of his own previous output against Seattle.
Brandon Manumaleuna can match his career-best for a single season in one game against the Bengals by having two touchdown catches, and Marvin Harrison gains a mere 21 yards against a Bills team in the league’s bottom half in passing yards allowed per game.
That’s the way it goes. No amount of numbers-crunching or trend-watching can tell you that Ike Hilliard, Cedrick Wilson and Terrence Copper will offer more value than Roy Williams or Andre Johnson. At the same time, though, knowing the statistics, paying attention to matchups and being aware of trends is the best way to prepare yourself.
That’s where the advice comes in. There’s nothing wrong with asking for someone else’s opinion when trying to make a final lineup decision or two. Another person might have more time, access or even just willingness to pore over the applicable information. Just remember that you’re the one who ultimately cares whether your team wins, so be the one in control of it.
Out on an Island: The Jets surprised most people with their passing game in the first couple of weeks, getting more than 300 yards in each of their first two games. Aside from giving Chad Pennington some credibility, that opening also launched the fantasy career of Jerricho Cotchery.
However, after a hot start that produced 12 receptions, 186 yards and two TDs in his first two games, Cotchery slowed way down and started burning those who had jumped onto his bandwagon. His next four contests saw just 11 catches and one touchdown, and he only surpassed 50 yards receiving once in that span (65 against the Colts in Week 4).
Over the past three weeks, though, Pennington has seemingly rediscovered his young target. Cotchery has averaged six receptions a game against the Lions, Browns and Patriots, despite uninspiring outings by his quarterback. Now, the Jets host a Chicago D that’s allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the league and is tied for second in fewest passing TDs yielded. Seems like a bad spot to play a receiver, right?
Well, six of the seven TD passes the Bears have allowed came in the three games prior to the Giants victory. Joey Harrington threw for three scores on them two weeks ago.
Chicago should be somewhat weary from a second straight trip to New Jersey (wouldn’t we all) and could be caught in a trap game between tilts against the Giants and Patriots. I like Cotchery’s chances for 60 yards and a TD.
Matt Schauf writes a weekly fantasy football column for The Daily Star. E-mail him at mschauf63@hotmail.com.
