Vikings’ running game could be the difference

Facts: First the good-news forecast: The temperature is expected to be in the low 30s with a 70 percent chance of freezing rain/snow. Two Januarys ago, the visiting Vikings beat the Packers, 31-17, in the postseason as a 6 1/2-point underdog when it was in the mid-20s. ... Minnesota QB Brad Johnson has been benched three times this season. That appears to be the limit. Tarvaris Jackson, a second-round pick from Alabama State, gets to open at QB in this game, the sixth rookie passer to start this season. The other five lost their starting debuts and are a cumulative 14-22. ... By contrast, Green Bay’s Brett Favre, playing against the league’s third-worst pass defense (Detroit), had his worst rating day of the season (32.9), with no TDs and three interceptions _ two of which came inside the Lions’ 15. Favre walked away a winner and still has his job. ... With two games to go, the Vikings are on pace to give up 881 rushing yards this season. The last team to play a full schedule and give up fewer were the 1945 Eagles with 817 in a 10-game season. ... Both teams remain in the running for the playoffs, with even a possibility of a seven-way tie at 8-8 for the wild-card slots. In such a ridiculous cluster, the Vikings would have a solid chance of advancing since they would have the best conference record in the bunch.

Analysis: Jackson got a taste of freezing weather when he replaced Johnson and Brooks Bollinger three weeks ago in Chicago, when the temperature was about 20. He went 3-for-4 for 35 yards. That’s far from horrible considering the venue and what the Bears did to Johnson before him (four interceptions). Tonight, when running the ball might be the best mode of attack, Jackson gives the Vikings an elusive threat in the backfield. As for Green Bay, RB Ahman Green is a horse, but Minnesota hasn’t allowed anyone a sniff of success on the ground since September. It won’t help the Packers that they have a patched up offensive line.

Forecast: Vikings 21, Packers 17